信号与噪声(罗辑思维书单） The Signal and the Noise

基本信息

by Nate Silver (Author)

Format:Paperback / softback 544 pages

Publisher:Penguin Books Ltd

Imprint:Penguin Books Ltd

ISBN:9780141975658

Published:18 Apr 2013

Weight:372g

Dimensions:197 x 130 x 29 (mm)

页面参数仅供参考，具体以实物为准

书籍简介

国际畅销书，作者：“数字计算界的伽利略”（独立报）每当我们选择上班路线、决定是否进行第二次约会，或是预留资金以备不时之需时，我们都在预测未来。然而，从金融危机到生态灾难，我们常常无法预见事情，这往往给社会带来巨大的损失。“大数据”的兴起有可能帮助我们预测未来，但其中很多数据却具有误导性、无用性或干扰性。

在《信号与噪声》一书中，曾准确预测2012年美国大选各州结果的《纽约时报》政治预测员内特·西尔弗揭示了我们如何在这个充满不确定性的世界中提升预见能力。从股市到扑克牌桌，从地震到经济，他带领我们踏上一段引人入胜的内行之旅，探索高风险的预测世界，展示我们如何在纷繁复杂的数据中识别出真正的信号。 “非凡且有益”——马修·丹科纳，《星期日电讯报》“对概率思维的清晰解释”——《卫报》

The International Bestseller by 'The Galileo of number crunchers' (Independent)Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. The rise of 'big data' has the potential to help us predict the future, yet much of it is misleading, useless or distracting.

In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise of data. 'Remarkable and rewarding' Matthew D'Ancona, Sunday Telegraph'A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically' Guardian

作者简介

Nate Silver是FiveThirtyEight的创始人，也是国际畅销书《信号与噪声》的作者，该书已被翻译成十几种语言出版。他还撰写了Substack杂志《Silver Bulletin》。

Nate Silveris the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the internationally bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, which was published in a dozen languages. He writes the Substack 'Silver Bulletin'.