理解混乱:更好的经济学，更好的世界 牛津大学新经济思维研究所复杂经济学主任

Making Sense of Chaos : A Better Economics for a Better World

基本信息

Format:Paperback / softback 384 pages

Publisher:Penguin Books Ltd

Imprint:Penguin Books Ltd

ISBN:9780141981208

Published:24 Apr 2025

Weight:283g

Dimensions:198 x 130 (mm)

页面参数仅供参考，具体以实物为准

书籍简介

“Doyne Farmer是前沿的技术变革思想家。几十年来，他一直关注这样一个问题：我们如何理解今天的数据，以了解世界明天的发展方向。这本精彩的书将这些见解应用于经济学，解决了环境可持续性、世界各地人民的福祉和繁荣等重大全球问题。”“Our World in Data”创始人 Max Roser 我们生活在一个日益复杂的时代，技术加速发展和全球互联互通比人类历史上任何其他时期都更具希望，也更具危险。

除了金融危机之外，气候变化、自动化、日益加剧的不平等和两极分化等问题都植根于经济，但标准的经济预测却让我们失望。许多书籍都介绍了 Doyne Farmer 及其在混沌和复杂性理论方面的开创性工作。《Making Sense of Chaos》是初本用他自己的语言撰写的书，提出了一份更好地进行经济学的宣言。

在科学和思想的故事中，Farmer 将他深厚的知识与生活中的故事融合在一起，解释了如何利用科学革命来解决社会面临的经济难题。利用大数据和功能越来越强大的计算机，我们可以初次将复杂系统科学应用于经济活动，建立全球经济的现实模型。由此产生的模拟和我们观察到的突发行为构成了复杂性经济学的基石。

Farmer 表示，这门新科学将使我们能够测试想法并做出更好的经济预测——并创造一个更美好的世界。

‘Doyne Farmer is the world's leading thinker on technological change. For decades he has focused on the question of how we can make sense of the data of today to see where the world is going tomorrow. This wonderful book applies these insights to economics, addressing the big global issues of environmental sustainability, and the well-being and prosperity of people around the world’ Max Roser, Founder of Our World in DataWe live in an age of increasing complexity, where accelerating technology and global interconnection hold more promise – and more peril – than any other time in human history.

As well as financial crises, issues around climate change, automation, growing inequality and polarization are all rooted in the economy, yet standard economic predictions fail us. Many books have been written about Doyne Farmer and his pioneering work in chaos and complexity theory. Making Sense of Chaos is the first in his own words, presenting a manifesto for doing economics better.

In a tale of science and ideas, Farmer fuses his profound knowledge with stories from his life to explain how to harness a scientific revolution to address the economic conundrums facing society. Using big data and ever more powerful computers, we can for the first time apply complex systems science to economic activity, building realistic models of the global economy. The resulting simulations and the emergent behaviour we observe form the cornerstone of complexity economics.

This new science, Farmer shows, will allow us to test ideas and make significantly better economic predictions – and, ultimately, create a better world.

作者简介

J. Doyne Farmer 是一位美国复杂系统科学家和企业家，他是定义我们时代科学议程的许多领域的先驱：动态系统、混沌、复杂系统、人工生命、可穿戴计算、时间序列分析、理论生物学和预测理论。目前，他是牛津马丁学院新经济思维研究所复杂性经济学项目主任、牛津大学地理与环境学院 Baillie Gifford 复杂系统科学的教授、高级副研究员、Macrocosm 是科学家和圣达菲研究所外部教授。

此前，他是奥本海默研究员和洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室复杂系统小组的创始人。读研究生期间，他领导了一家名为 Eudaemonic Enterprises 的合作社，制造了头一台可穿戴（且隐蔽）的数字计算机，并在赌场中使用它，成功击败了赌场。他是 Prediction Company 的创始人，这是一家早期的量化自动交易公司，于 2006 年被出售给瑞士联合银行。他目前的研究领域是经济学，包括基于代理的建模、金融不稳定性和技术进步，他还是 Macrocosm 的创始人，这是一家使用复杂性经济学指导绿色能源转型的新公司。作为一名冒险家和狂热的航海家，Doyne 还会抽出时间享受驾驶他的船 Eudemon 的乐趣。

J. Doyne Farmer is an American complex systems scientist and entrepreneur who was a pioneer in many of the fields that define the scientific agenda of our times: dynamical systems, chaos, complex systems, artificial life, wearable computing, time series analysis, theoretical biology, and the theory of prediction. Currently he is Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science in the school of Geography and the Environment at the University of Oxford, Senior Associate Research Fellow atCollege, Chief Scientist at Macrocosm, and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.

Previously, he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student he led a cooperative calling itself Eudaemonic Enterprises who built the first wearable (and concealed) digital computer and used it in casinos, successfully beating the house. He was a founder of Prediction Company, an early quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to the United Bank of Switzerland in 2006. His current research is in economics, including agent-based modeling, financial instability and technological progress, and a founder of Macrocosm, a new company using complexity economics to guide the green energy transition. As an adventurer and avid sailor, Doyne also finds time to enjoy sailing his boat Eudemon.