不确定性的艺术：如何应对机会、无知、风险和运气（《统计的艺术》作者新书） The Art of Uncertainty : How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck David Spiegelhalter

基本信息

Format:Hardback 512 pages

Publisher:Penguin Books Ltd

Imprint:Pelican

ISBN:9780241658628

Published:19 Sep 2024

Classifications:Risk assessment, Social research & statistics, Probability & statistics, Popular mathematics

Weight:610g

Dimensions:223 x 146 x 48 (mm)

基本信息仅供参考，具体以实物为准

书籍简介

《可能是英国伟大的在世统计学家》来自英国的“统计国宝”，一本聪明的、以数据为基础的指南，告诉我们如何面对风险和不确定性我们生活在一个不确定性不可避免的世界。我们应该如何处理我们不知道的事情？机会、运气和巧合在我们的生活中扮演什么角色？David Spiegelhalter在他的职业生涯中一直在分析数据，以了解风险并评估未来可能发生的事情的可能性。在《不确定性的艺术》一书中，他为读者提供了一扇窗口，让他们了解我们如何能做得更好。

在引人入胜、晶莹剔透的散文中，他向我们介绍了概率论的原理，展示了概率论如何帮助我们更有分析性地思考从医疗建议到流行病和气候变化预测等一切问题，并探讨了我们如何在面对不断变化的经验时更新我们对未来的信念。在书中，他解释了为什么大约40%的足球比赛结果取决于运气而不是天赋，国家风险登记册如何评估英国的短期风险，以及为什么我们可以如此自信，两副正确洗牌的扑克牌从来没有按照完全相同的顺序排列过。这本书借鉴了大量引人入胜的现实世界的例子，是一本在面对不确定性的同时谦卑地承认我们不知道的重要指南

‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.

In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order. Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know

作者简介

David Spiegelhalter教授是剑桥大学统计学名誉教授。他的畅销书《统计的艺术》已被翻译成11种语言出版。2014年，他因在医学统计方面的贡献被封为爵士，曾担任皇家统计学会主席（2017年至2018年），并于2020年成为英国统计局的非执行董事。

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book The Art of Statistics has been published in eleven languages. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017 – 2018) and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020.