书名：Fooled by Randomness随机漫步的傻瓜 
作者：Nassim Nicholas Taleb
出版社名称：Penguin Books Ltd
出版时间：2007
语种：英文
ISBN：9780141031484
商品尺寸：12.9 x 2.1 x 19.8 cm
包装：平装
页数：368
★经典书籍《黑天鹅》作者的又一力作
★《财富》推荐75本经典读物之一，华尔街交易员人手一本的“教科书”
★被翻译成23种语言，深受世界各地读者的喜爱
★招商银行行长马蔚华、《引爆点》作者马尔科姆·格拉德威尔等联袂推荐

媒体评论：
这是一本实用的书，股市的随机现象较为典型，大起大落只是发生在须臾之间，但是借鉴塔勒布的操作手法（这也是不少操盘手正在做的），您将能有效避免风险，并在黑天鹅出现时大赚一笔。股票交易者应该人手一册。——《经济学人》

没有人是完美无缺的，我们的内心有很多隐藏的偏见和认知捷径在影响着我们的逻辑思维，使我们无法做出合理的预测，或无法机智应对环境的变化。在这个瞬息万变的时代，这是一个值得重复强调的论题，而塔勒布则通过本书用一种通俗的方式把它讲述出来，揭开了统计学家、数学家、商人、记者和其他冒牌学者的真相。——《国家报》

很难对这本书进行分类。如果你在书店或图书馆找这本书，你可能会发现它可能在商业部分，也可能在哲学部分。无论你是在哪里碰巧找到这本书，阅读它都将是一件愉快的事，它在给你带来挑战的同时，也会娱乐你的身心。——《太阳报》

这是本奇特之书、好玩之书、实用之书。——《上海证券报》

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable?
This book is the bestselling sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist.

Review
'An iconoclastic tour de force ... nothing escapes his Exocets' -- Evening Standard

'Brilliant'--John Kay

'Excellent and thought-provoking ... an entertaining book' --Financial Times

'One of the smartest books of all time' --Fortune

'Wall Street's principal dissident' -- Malcolm Gladwell
你的成功不见得是因为比其他人高明，而很可能是运气的结果。开劳斯莱斯的摇滚乐手、把印象派画作抬到天价的投机客，拥有私人飞机的企业家和牙医相比，哪一个更富有？答案可能让你吃惊：牙医。因为他的职业生涯几乎没有什么风险，可能出现的灾难少之又少，也不会像投机客和企业家那样垮台，所以，牙医其实相当富有。

生活的特点是不确定性，这种现象比比皆是，大起大落常常发生在须臾之间。当不确定性的黑天鹅出现时，你可能一夜暴富，也可能在一次失误中回到原点。但我们天生倾向于忽视低概率事件的可能性，无论这些事件会引发多大的灾难。本书以深刻独到的视角，告诉你这个世界的规律和运行方式。不确定性虽然无法避免，但我们可以学着接受它。就像在投资市场上，如果一个小概率事件可以带来巨额回报，为什么不在这个事件上持续下注呢？换一种思维方式，我们对人生的了解无疑将大为增进。
纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb），畅销书《黑天鹅》、《随机漫步的傻瓜》、《随机生存的智慧》的作者，我们这个时代伟大的思想者之一。塔勒布倾其一生研究不确定性、概率和知识的问题。在2006年成为一个全职作家和学术研究者之前，塔勒布做了20年的商人和交易员。现在他受聘于纽约大学理工学院，任风险工程学特聘教授。大部分时间他都喜欢待在书房中闭关研习，或者在咖啡馆里像漫游者一样冥思。他的主要研究课题是“在不透明环境下的决策”，为引导我们如何生活在一个我们并不理解的世界中提供指南或原则。塔勒布的书已被译为33国语言在全球发行。

Nassim Nicholas Talebhas devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity"--that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand. Taleb's books have been published in thirty-three languages.
Croesus, King of Lydia, was considered the richest man of his time. To this day Romance languages use the expression “rich as Croesus” to describe a person of excessive wealth. He was said to be visited by Solon, the Greek legislator known for his dignity, reserve, upright morals, humility, frugality, wisdom, intelligence, and courage. Solon did not display the smallest surprise at the wealth and splendor surrounding his host, nor the tiniest admiration for their owner. Croesus was so irked by the manifest lack of impression on the part of this illustrious visitor that he attempted to extract from him some acknowledgment. He asked him if he had known a happier man than him. Solon cited the life of a man who led a noble existence and died while in battle. Prodded for more, he gave similar examples of heroic but terminated lives, until Croesus, irate, asked him point-blank if he was not to be considered the happiest man of all. Solon answered:
“The observation of the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments, or to admire a man’s happiness that may yet, in course of time, suffer change. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with all variety of future; and him only to whom the divinity has [guaranteed] continued happiness until the end we may call happy.”
The modem equivalent has been no less eloquently voiced by the baseball coach Yogi Berra, who seems to have translated Solon’s outburst from the pure Attic Greek into no less pure Brooklyn English with it ain’t over until it’s over, or, in a less dignified manner, with “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings. In addition, aside from his use of the vernacular, the Yogi Berra quote presents an advantage of being true, while the meeting between Croesus and Solon was one of those historical facts that benefited from the imagination of the chroniclers, as it was chronologically impossible for the two men to have been in the same location.
Part I is concerned with the degree to which a situation may yet, in the course of time, suffer change. For we can be tricked by situations involving mostly the activities of the goddess Fortuna— Jupiter’s firstborn daughter. Solon was wise enough to get the following point; that which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck (and often rapidly and unexpectedly at that). The flipside, which deserves to be considered as well (in fact it is even more of our concern), is that things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness. Solon also had the intuition of a problem that has obsessed science for the past three centuries. It is called the problem of induction. I call it in this book the black swan or the rare event. Solon even understood another linked problem, which I call the skewness issue; it does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.