经理人理性决策导论 Rational Decision Making For Managers - An Introduction

基本信息

Format:Paperback / softback 352 pages

Publisher:John Wiley & Sons Inc

Imprint:John Wiley & Sons Inc

ISBN:9780470519653

Published:6 Feb 2009

Weight:522g

Dimensions:155 x 227 x 20 (mm)

页面参数仅供参考，具体以实物为准

书籍简介○

《管理者的理性决策》让学生对管理者用来制定复杂业务决策的定量和分析技术有基本的了解，并帮助他们识别何时合适。 Sarah Keast 和 Mike Towler 还展示了通过使用每种技术可以了解的决策特征，从而指导读者进行选择。

管理者理性决策的特点：

○关于鲁棒性分析和博弈论的单独章节

○强有力的上下文讨论和清晰的结构

○简洁的数学附录

本书是学习商业决策、定量方法和商业研究方法的学生的读物。

Rational Decision Making for Managers provides students with a basic understanding of quantitative and analytical techniques that managers use to make complex business decisions and helps them to recognise when they are appropriate. Sarah Keast and Mike Towler also show the characteristics of the decisions that can be informed by the use of each technique, thereby guiding the reader in their choice.

Rational Decision Making for Managers features:

separate chapters on robustness analysis and game theory

a strong contextual discussion and clear structure

a concise mathematical appendix

The book is essential reading for students studying business decision making, quantitative methods and business research methods.

作者简介

Sarah Keast 是普利茅斯大学商学院信息管理讲师。 莎拉对在经济和一般商业环境中使用数学建模和定量分析技术产生了兴趣。

Michael Towler 的职业生涯始于研发，曾在公共和私营部门以及研发管理领域工作过。 他于 2002 年加入普利茅斯大学商学院，讲授运营管理和商业决策。 随后于 2008 年转到 BPP 商学院。

Sarah Keast is a lecturer in information management at the University of Plymouth Business School. Sarah has formed an interest in the use of mathematical modelling and quantitative analysis techniques in both the economic and the general business environments.

Michael Towler began his career in research and development and has worked in the public and private sector as well as R&D management. He joined the University of Plymouth Business School in 2002 where he lectured in operations management and in business decision-making. In 2008 this was followed by a move to BPP Business School.

目录

部分目录，仅供参考

About the Authors.

Acknowledgements.

Preface.

PART 1 The Decision Context.

1 Introduction to Decision-making.

Introduction.

What is a Decision?

Uncertainty and Risk in Decision-taking.

Probability.

Rational Decision-taker.

Biases.

Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Decision-making.

Models.

Who Should Participate in a Decision Process?.

Overview of Text.

Further Reading.

2 Time Series Forecasting.

Introduction.

Creating a Time Series Forecast – Overview.

Data Types.

Identifying Trends.

Decomposition.

Finding the Seasonal Component.

Average and Moving Average Forecasts.

Simple Exponential Smoothing.

Exponential Smoothing for Data with a Trend.

Exponential Smoothing for Non-Stationary Data with Seasonality.

Standard Deviation of the Forecast.

Choosing Appropriate Forecasting Models.

Transforming Data.

Alternative Time Series Forecasting Techniques.

Summary.

Further Reading.

3 Explanatory and Qualitative Forecasting.