书名：Thinking in Bets对赌：信息不足时如何做出明智决策
作者：Annie Duke
出版社名称：Portfolio
出版时间：2019
语种：英语
ISBN：9780735216372
商品尺寸：14 x 1.8 x 21.1 cm
包装：平装
页数：288（以实物为准）
Review

"A big favorite among investors these days." -The New York Times

"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world." -Marc Andreessen

"Outstanding." -Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

"Duke's discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn't work." -Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge

"An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." -Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting

"Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." -Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind

"The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." -Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing

"Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." -Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better

"Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." -Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception

"A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." -Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly

"A highly-readable balance between memorable, real-world analogies and hardcore behavioral science studies... The book is packed with insights." -John Greathouse, Forbes

世界500强决策顾问安妮·杜克
★★帮助你更好地评估事实 优选决策方案★★
重塑科学决策系统 使你成为自信镇定的人生出牌者

总有些时刻面临关键决策。在这个充满不确定性的时代，我们在决策时时常面临信息不足、不理性和盲从的局面。一旦决策错误，就要用更长时间来为之买单。我们需要专业的决策课。作者融合心理科学和扑克高手实战经验，总结出了对赌思维。通过建立科学的决策系统，做对人生关键选择。

在信息不足时，扑克手需要在两分钟内做出20个决策，本质上像一场又一场的决策实验，可以说——职业扑克手就是职业决策者。

《对赌》通过许多生动的案例，介绍了一套人人都可以采用的、强大（但易于操作）的方法。它让你了解决策背后是概率选择，关注决策质量而不以结果论成败；让你破除心理上的自利性偏差，让你在情绪不稳的情况下及时退出止损。

培养了科学的认知习惯后，加上各种思维工具的有效运用，如同伴制的求真团体和心理时间旅行法等，建立强大且完整的科学决策系统。

退役后，安妮·杜克结合自己在职业扑克赛中的实践决策技能，继续从事认知和决策心理学方向的研究，是在决策和风险领域广受欢迎的专业演讲家和决策战略家，进行过上千次演讲。她担任万豪国际、美国银行、花旗集团等世界500强企业的决策咨询顾问，同时还是“我如何做决策”（HowIDecide.org）网站联合创始人，“课外全明星”（After-School All-Stars）公益组织董事会成员，富兰克林研究所理事。

Annie Dukeis a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn. She is a founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers.